MTG Calculator

MTG Mana-Check

Calculate your mana curve probabilities and optimize your deck's land count. Uses hypergeometric distribution for accurate results.

Playability Score

Quick assessment of your mana base health.

Deck

Lands

Avg CMC

Good

Based on 24 lands in a 60-card deck with avg CMC of 3

Land Drop Simulator

Calculate the probability of hitting your land drops on curve.

Deck Size

Land Count

Target Turn4

12345678910

On the play (draw 1 fewer card)

Probability of hitting land drop #4

73%Acceptable

You have a 73% chance of hitting your 4th land drop by turn 4 (on the draw).

Land Drop Success Rate

73%

Mana Source Balance

Calculate the probability of casting a spell on curve based on your mana sources.

Deck Size

Total Lands

Mana Coste.g., 1UUR, 2BB, WUBRG

CMC: 41

Mana Sources

On the play

Probability of casting 1UUR on turn 4

63%Acceptable

With your current mana base, you have a 63% chance of casting this spell on curve.

Casting Success Rate

63%

About the Math

This calculator uses the Hypergeometric Distribution to calculate exact probabilities. Unlike binomial distribution, hypergeometric accounts for the fact that cards are drawn without replacement.

The formula calculates the probability of drawing exactly k successes in n draws from a population of N containing K successes:

P(X=k) = C(K,k) × C(N-K, n-k) / C(N,n)

Default assumptions: Starting hand of 7 cards, plus one draw per turn. "On the draw" adds one extra card to the opening hand calculation.